Our meetings are generally held on the last Wednesday of every month from 11:30 am to 1:00 pm (locations vary).
Hurricanes: Focus on the Impacts, Not the Cone
Dan Noah, Meteorologist for the National Weather Service
July 29th, 2020
11:30-12:00 Discussion of GTBACP moving forward and moment of Silence for Stephen Elliot
Free to attend
Improvements in forecasting the path of tropical cyclones have led to a large decrease in the size of the forecast cone over the last 15 years. The forecast cone shows where the center of the storm is likely to be found, but the impacts can extend well beyond the cone. How many people remember the 2017 Hurricane Irma storm surge flooding parts of Jacksonville even though the center of the storm was well to the west? Impacts from storm surge can be one of the hardest forecasts to make as numerous factors combine to create the surge. Preparedness decisions related to storm surge are better decided using storm surge potential rather than a single deterministic surge value due to forecast uncertainty and the destructive nature of storm surge. Flooding rain can extend well outside of the forecast cone as citizens of St Petersburg and Clearwater experienced during 2012 Tropical Storm Debby. What impacts could Floridians expect if 2017 Hurricane Harvey stalled across the State and dropped five feet of rain? Finally, the storm has passed and people are anxious to get their life back to normal. However, the threat isn't over. Some storms have more fatalities after the storm than during the storm. Find out what you can do to communicate tropical threats and encourage preparedness among your employees.
Dan has been a meteorologist with the National Weather Service (NWS) for 31 years and serves as the principal interface between the local Forecast Office and the users of NWS products and Services. He leads the effort to ensure their evaluation, adjustment, and improvement. Dan has been a member of the Florida Governor’s Hurricane Conference Program Committee since 2006 where he organizes and teaches in training and workshops. Dan has experienced the aftermath of
June 24th, 2020
COVID-19 Roundtable Discussion